TNAG-2190-FCO40-3127-Hong-Kong-nationality-package-1990 — Page 174

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criticism in the UK that the scheme is elitist (not to

mention the difficulty of finding a defensible dividing line

between occupations which would be in and those which would

be out), we believe that this is acceptable provided that the numbers in the lesser skilled groups are not large.

The table at Annex C sets out HKG's proposed allocations to

the various occupational groups in terms of absolute number

of places to be offered, the proportion of the 33,300 GAS

places available in the first round which would fall to each

and to chances of group,

chances of success for individuals within

each group.

We have sidelined those which we think

Ministers will wish to look at most carefully. These groups

account for, in total, over two million of the 2,600,000

strong workforce or 78%. None of the groups has a more than

0.5% chance of success (column g) but between them, they

absorb 4,078 of the 33,3000 available places in the first

tranche. HKG point out that those selected in each category

will, because of the points system be the most highly

skilled and valuable members of the

of the group

the multi

lingual secretaries, the craftsmen etc, and argue that any

smaller allocation would risk being regarded as derisory,

and subject to much criticism in Hong Kong and in Britain.

However, we asked them to produce some additional options for Ministers to consider and rough calculations (based on

a distribution of 30,000 rather than 33,300 places) are

attached at D. The differences are in the "variation

factor", designed to take account of the ease or otherwise

of replacing people who have left, (column c on the tables).

In HKG's preferred allocation, this variation factor is 1

for most groups, but 0.25 for the less skilled. The

alternatives at D show a wider variation. The choice

between the various options is ultimately a political one,

and will depend on an assessment of the likely damage to be

caused by (a) those who will regard the scheme as too

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CONFIDENTIAL