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criticism in the UK that the scheme is elitist (not to
mention the difficulty of finding a defensible dividing line
between occupations which would be in and those which would
be out), we believe that this is acceptable provided that the numbers in the lesser skilled groups are not large.
The table at Annex C sets out HKG's proposed allocations to
the various occupational groups in terms of absolute number
of places to be offered, the proportion of the 33,300 GAS
places available in the first round which would fall to each
and to chances of group,
chances of success for individuals within
each group.
We have sidelined those which we think
Ministers will wish to look at most carefully. These groups
account for, in total, over two million of the 2,600,000
strong workforce or 78%. None of the groups has a more than
0.5% chance of success (column g) but between them, they
absorb 4,078 of the 33,3000 available places in the first
tranche. HKG point out that those selected in each category
will, because of the points system be the most highly
skilled and valuable members of the
of the group
the multi
lingual secretaries, the craftsmen etc, and argue that any
smaller allocation would risk being regarded as derisory,
and subject to much criticism in Hong Kong and in Britain.
However, we asked them to produce some additional options for Ministers to consider and rough calculations (based on
a distribution of 30,000 rather than 33,300 places) are
attached at D. The differences are in the "variation
factor", designed to take account of the ease or otherwise
of replacing people who have left, (column c on the tables).
In HKG's preferred allocation, this variation factor is 1
for most groups, but 0.25 for the less skilled. The
alternatives at D show a wider variation. The choice
between the various options is ultimately a political one,
and will depend on an assessment of the likely damage to be
caused by (a) those who will regard the scheme as too
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