o the things necessary to make “one country, two systems" work and to
ake autonomous government function.
Whether one is optimistic or pessimistic about these three vital areas of oncern, it should be possible to agree that these are the vital issues. Over ime, progress or deterioration should be measurable on a relatively ›bjective basis.
In the meantime, there are some noteworthy trends that will vitally affect he prospects.
First, Hong Kong's economy retains a vitality that leaves little doubt that per capita income in the year 2000 will exceed British per capita income.
Second, regardless of anything Beijing does, uncertainty over its attitude toward the legal system will be sufficiently great as to cause large-scale continued migration of companies and individuals out of the territory. Hong Kong will never be as attractive politically as economically.
The failure to distinguish political from economic prospects has caused much fruitless debate. Hong Kong's destiny is to be an economic appendage of China. Beijing will do whatever minimum is necessary to make the economic magnet work, and that minimum is likely to be sufficient to keep Hong Kong a relatively attractive place to live. But educated people are always going to seek a foreign passport—and Beijing's interests will be better served when it recognizes that people are more likely to remain if they have their foreign passports.
Third, China has the most successes of any communist economic reform in the history of the communist world. Even after Tiananmen Square, it has not abandoned economic reform, and indeed is now gearing up for another major wave of reform. The income gains of the 1980s reforms have been so spectacular that the popular demand for further reform is overwhelming.22
Fourth, the outstanding Chinese record of honoring international agreements remains intact, and China's self-interest leans overwhelmingly on the side of interpreting the agreements about Hong Kong in ways that are favorable to Hong Kong. Moreover, China understands this.
Fifth, Hong Kong continues to be given effective management control over large parts of the southern Chinese economy, even by an extremely conservative Chinese government, and the benefits to China are so great that they create further momentum. The most important lesson of Tiananmen Square for Hong Kong was that even such a terrible struggle did not disrupt Hong Kong's role in the Chinese economy.
These are powerful forces for optimism.
Hong Kong's
economics will
outperfom its politics
China's economic
reform will revive
China still honor its
agreements
China is expanding
Hong Kong's role
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