The risk of immobilism
more willing to improve their standard of English than locally trained people. Continuation of this trend would do more than anything else to diminish Hong Kong's competitiveness vis a vis Singapore.
Third, the ability of the police and civil service to hold an increasingly autonomous government to ransom for benefits that are inflationary may be greater than under a relatively secure British administration.
These trends contain two potential dangers. One is that domestic interest groups could steadily erode Hong Kong's competitiveness by pursuing narrow interests at the expense of broader economic progress. In doing so, they would also undermine its stability as the mentality of narrow interests spread, bringing disorder as well as inefficiency. The second is that such a development could lead to a decisive intervention by Beijing with considerable support from aggrieved groups in Hong Kong. This is far from an urgent danger, but it bears watching.
Along with self-indulgence, the second risk of autonomy is immobilism. A Hong Kong government dominated by the business elite, as it has been designed to be, could be paralyzed by competitive efforts to curry favor with Beijing and avoid any stands that would antagonize Beijing. Likewise, any Hong Kong government could be paralyzed, as much of China's government is, by strong interventions on the part of a Beijing leadership that frequently changes its mind. The need for Hong Kong to be fast on its feet is one of the most important reasons for Beijing to encourage free-wheeling debate and vigorous political competition, even when some aspects of that debate and competition may be unpleasant to read about in Beijing.
Hong Kong will not survive an extended bout of either self-indulgence or immobilism. Its internal stability results from rapid economic growth based on stern economic priorities and rapid decisions. And its utility to Beijing as an autonomous entity derives exclusively from its economic utility. Politically, Hong Kong is a pain in China's rump; its survival depends on continued economic dynamism. For this reason, it is a very good thing indeed that the Hong Kong system has been designed around a strong chief executive; what remains to be seen is whether Beijing will endorse a strong, locally oriented chief executive who is a product of the Hong Kong system and will act firmly in its interest.
PROSPECTS
The thrust of this argument has been that the concerns most often expressed about Hong Kong's future do not stand up in light of the evidence. On the other hand, there are valid and vital concerns as to whether both sides will
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