In this, one
(We should
The worst case scenario is more difficult to predict.
should assume that the situation in Hong Kong is poor.
not assume a disaster since HMG might well then have to pick up a substantial bill for HMOCS members.) Examples could include: the
economy has failed to pick up; salary increases have not kept pace with inflation; racial tension has increased; the compensation
package is viewed as inadequate, and interference by the Chinese is
endemic. In short Hong Kong is no longer a desirable place to work but it has not collapsed. Under the worst case scenario, we could
assume that none of the officers who have the right to join HMOCS
decide to do so that is all 390. We could also assume that all
HMOCS officers aged 45 and below now decide not to continue but to
start a new career elsewhere. The remainder would amount to
about 170 officers. The remaining officers might possible stay on in the hope of getting some sort of pension (all could retire in
2000 the last year of operation of the JLG). These diehards would all retire within three years.
-
1997
170
1998
120
1999
80
2000
40
2001
0
The medium case would naturally be somewhere between these extremes.
It would assume that the scheme was reasonably attrative in
retaining people to 1997. A method of calculation could involve
taking the historical wastage and applying them up to 1997. Police
officers currently on agreement terms (the bulk of the 390 who are
not yet HMOCS members) have a high wastage rate, so this number would reduce significantly. Using these assumptions we estimate
that there would be about 540 officers left in 1997. We also
consider that about 30% would leave in 1997, after compensation, and
roughly 40 would leave each year thereafter as follows:-
1997
540
1998
378
1999
336
2000
294
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