Numbers of HMOCS Members likely to be involved
ANNEX A
Since it is very difficult to predict accurately how many HMOCS
members will remain to benefit from the scheme, this Annex sets out worst, medium and best case scenarios.
Taking account only of natural retirement, by 1997 there will be
about 500 HMOCS members left. In addition by 1997, taking account
only of natural retirement, there would be some 390 other civil
servants who could opt to become HMOCS members. Thus if all these
officers decided to stay on and none decided to resign, die or
otherwise leave the service, the maximu number of HMOCs members in
the service in 1997 would be 890. This would clearly indicate a
very "stable and prosperous" Hong Kong and a very favourable deal
for HMOCS members. From 890 should be deducted a figure of 140 to
take account of HMOCS members who will retire under other, special,
schemes already established, leaving 750 others.
The "best" case scenario would thus involve 750 officers receiving
compensation in 1997. Thereafter, the best case scenario would
assume that officers only left on natural retirement. Actual
calculations based on officers ages indicates that the numbers would
reduce as follows:-
1997 750
1998 717
1999 691
2000 665
2001 632
2002 594
2003 560
2004 513
2005 475
2006 433
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