proposals:-
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Numbers Involved
(a) It is very difficult accurately to predict how many HMOCS
members may remain in 1997, how many will leave in 1997 and
what wastage rate there will be after 1997. There are
currently about 500 HMOCS members. However there are also
about 390 officers who have the right to become HMOCS officers
if they wish. Clearly the extent to which this latter group
will take up there right to HMOCS membership will depend on how
favourable the package is. We and Hong Kong Government have
examined the historical wastage rates of the main groups of
officers who make up the above. Based on this and on other
assumptions regarding the limited compensation scheme, we
estimate that by 1997 there will only be remaining 585 HMOCS
members. We consider that in 1997, and after the compensation
has been granted, about 30% of the remaining HMOCS members will
leave. We estimate that in the years after 1997 about 40
officials will leave each year.
It could be argued that the departure of 30% of the remaining
HMOCS members in 1997 represents a failure of this scheme to
induce them to stay on beyond 1997. However, compensation
payment in 1997 is inescapable and if it is not reasonably
substantial it will not even serve as an adequate incentive to
persuade officers to serve until 1997. If they can be persuaded to serve until 1997 then there is a good chance that
a proportion will continue beyond 1997. If that proportion is
70%, as we hope, then this should be regarded as a major
achievement.
The Payments
We have considered in great detail with the Hong Kong
Government the form that the scheme should take. We have
concluded that we should have a scheme based on:
(a) a payment to compensate for the Loss of the Secretary of
States protection in such areas as disciplinary procedures and
promotion). We propose to make a 10% payment in 1997 of the
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