substantial bill for HMOCS members.)
who
Examples could include: the
economy has failed to pick up; salary increases have not kept pace
with inflation; racial tension has increased; the compensation package is viewed as inadequate, and interference by the Chinese is
endemic. In short Hong Kong is no longer a desirable place to work
but it has not collasped. Under the worst case scenario, we could assume that none of the officers also have the right to J. HMOCS
decide to do so that is all 390. We could also assume that all
HMOCS officers aged 45 and below now decide not to continue but to start a new career elsewhere. This would amount to .!?officers.
The remaining officers might possible stay on in the hope of getting some sort of pension (all could retire in 2000 the last year of
operation of the JLG). Thus the number of offices left would be
about 170. These diehards would all retire within three years.
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
The medium case would naturally be somewhere between these extremes.
It would assume that the scheme was reasonably attrative in
retaining people to 1997. A method of calculation could involve
taking the historical wastage and applying them up to 1997. Police
officers currently on agreement terms (the bulk of the 390 who are not yet HMOCS members) have a high wastage rate, so this number would reduce significantly. Using these assumptions we estimate
that there would be about 580 officers left in 1997. We also
consider that about 30% would leave in 1997, after compensation, and
roughly 40 would leave each year thereafter as follows:-
1997
580
1998
410
1999
370
2000
330
2001
290
2002
250
2003
210
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