Numbers of HMOCS Members likely to be involved
ANNEX
A
Since it is very difficult to predict accurately how many HMOCS
members will remain to benefit from the scheme, this Annex sets out
worst, medium and best case scenarios.
now.
a. J
Taking account only of natural retirement, by 1997 there will be
about 500 HMOCS members left of the
who have that status
In addition there are currently
civil servants with the
right to become HMOCS members. By 1997, taking account only of
national retirement, there would be some 390 officers who could opt
to become HMOCS members. Thus if all these officers decided to stay
on and none decided to resign, die or otherwise leave the service,
the maximu number of HMOCS members in the service in 1997 would be
890. This would clearly indicate a very "stable and prosperous"
Hong Kong and a very favourable deal for HMOCS members.
The "best" case scenario would thus involve 890 officers receiving
compensation in 1997. Thereafter, the best case scenario would
assume that officers only left on natural retirement. Actual
calculations based on officers ages indicates that the numbers would
reduce as follows:-
1988 851
1990 820
2000 789
2001
750
2002
705
2003
665
609
2004 09
2005 564
2006514
The worst case scenario is more difficult to predict. In this, one
should assume that the situation in Hong Kong is poor. (We should not assume a disaster since HMG might well then have to pick up a
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