TNAG-2079-FCO40-2959-Hong-Kong-press-coverage-and-reports-1990 — Page 57

SMATV's Impact On Cable TV Subscribers

Year

Original

Reduced

Variance

1990

0

0

0.00%

1991

24,000

19,200

-20.00%

1992

177,500

142,000

-20.00%

1993

345,600

291,600

-15.63%

1994

504,000 432,000

-14.29%

1995

608,850

534,600

-12.20%

1996

719,100 627,300

-12.77%

1997

819,000 724,500

-11.54%

1998

923,400 826,200

-10.53%

1999

999,000 899,100

-10.00%

2000

1,026,000 923,400

-10.00%

2001

1,053,000 947,700

-10.00%

2002

1,080,000

972,000

-10.00%

2003

1,107,000 996,300

-10.00%

2004

1,134,000 1,020,600

-10.00%

2005

1,161,000 1,044,900

-10.00%

Total:

11,681,450 10,401,400

-10.96%

Appendix 3

1

2.

In the beginning SMATV will capture more homes than cable will have passed or been connected to. However the early penetration by Satellite will mean less cable subscribers. The first column shows the number of cable subscribers projected through the franchise (without SMATV competition). The second column shows the subscribers reduced by SMATV competition.

We have conservatively estimated that SMATV competition will reduce the number of subscribers, initially by 20% and eventually (1998 onwards) by 10%. In aggregate the loss in "subscriber years" is 10.96% over the whole franchise.