TNAG-2062-FCO40-2940-Vietnamese-boat-people-repatriation-1990 — Page 94

CONFIDENTIAL ##

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5

the CPA and

mandatory

having completed all stages of the screening and review

procedures). Progress with mandatory repatriation has

been even slower. There is a lack of consensus on this

issue in the Steering Committee established to implement

some countries are unwilling to support

repatriation as the logical outcome of

screening. The United States has argued that mandatory

repatriation should not be implemented until all

volunteers have been returned and the flow of new

applications has dried up. The Government's position, supported by HMG, is that without mandatory repatriation

the purpose of the CPA will be frustrated. If the

problem is to be brought under control, it is essential

that all elements of the CPA be

implemented.

6

It is

impossible

the rate of arrivals in

been

prepared

to predict with any certainty

1990. Contingency plans have

which would enable us to cope with between

20,000 and 30,000 arrivals, Needless to say such a rate

of arrivals

pressure.

would put the

administration

under great

The immediate issue is how best to head off a

major influx during the summer of 1990. There are, with

a number of variations, two broad strategies.

CONFIDENTIAL #2

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