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Hong
[24 JANUARY 1990]
which at the moment, has few if any attractions for the people of Hong Kong. When one sees the way people throughout eastern Europe have fums do wuthoritarian government to which they have not even been handed over but have actually grown up with, we can appreciate what a major step that is.
China's compliance with the spirit as well as the letter of the agreement, giving a large measure of autonomy to Hong Kong for 50 years, will greatly ease the transition and soften the landing. But unless the Basic Law is tightened, excuses could be found to water down that autonomy. After the Union flag comes down and the British armed forces have left there can be no guarantee that China's view of autonomy will be the same as ours or that of Hong Kong.
It is not surprising that we, who took Hong Kong by an act of war and ruled it for 150 years (except for three years), who benefited from, and helped with, the self-generated and manifest success story, and to whose people, therefore, we have deep and binding obligation have some real problems on our hands.
Basically, other than the important problem of refugees which has already been fully covered, these fall into two parts. The first is to whom, and to how many of those who now live and work in Hong Kong, should we give the right of abode in this country? The second is to what extent we introduce soon a predominantly elected democracy as opposed to the merely free society which now exists, albeit in the guise of a benign autocracy.
As regards the first problem, the Government have taken a courageous and, I believe, correct stand. They have done so on the basis that, if certain people had a guaranteed escape route, they would not wish to leave Hong Kong-that is, at least not unless China manifestly shows (and we hope that it will not) that it does not accept the kind of freedom and autonomy which is hoped for if not expected under the treaty-and that they will certainly stay long enough to work towards the handover of a going concern in 1997 which, under the treaty, is our part of the bargain.
Peking, or Beijing, may not like that questioning of its ultimate good faith. However, there is little that it can do about it because in a free society no one can stop people leaving. All that it can do is to threaten, as it appears to have done, that after 1997 anyone so protected by us will not be employed or protected by it. If that happens we must expect all those who have been allowed to come to us or to go to other areas in Europe to do so. But in a world in which all areas are becoming more cosmopolitan I find nothing unacceptable about that. I believe that some people have greatly underestimated the ease with which such friendly, immensely able and innovative people can be absorbed into our society and the contribution that they can undoubtedly make to our general wellbeing. We should be under no illusions about what will hapen. As has been said, we may even have to take more people if something goes wrong.
Kong
1120
The other part of the problem is more difficult, as the right honourable gentleman the Foreign Secretary is no doubt finding, perhaps giving an
ccasional, cursory thought to a oru nile literary treatment of another traumatic if hopefully different scenario in Hong Kong in one of his novels.
When I was in Hong Kong during the 1970s it was the conventional wisdom that there could not be an elected democracy there because China would not like it. It was believed that China's particular friends would always have to win such an election and that if they did not all hell would break loose. Sadly, however much we should be moving forward together with China-and no stone must be left unturned to do so-some of that cautionary tale still applies. That is for the simple reason that at this moment, and since the fiasco of Tianaman Square, China fears the repercussions of a truly democratic society within its borders even more than it welcomes the enormous economic advantages of a profitable, foreign exchange earning powerhouse to help with its modernisation.
Of course, in time all those things may change and hopefully for the better. But for the moment, even the direction let alone the timing of any change is uncertain. On the other hand, Hong Kong probably sees such a logical development not only as a sensible way of governing itself freely and effectively over and after the transitional period, but also as an insurance policy within China and internationally against too many liberties being taken with its self-government after we have left. However, much Hong Kong seeks to keep out of Chinese internal affairs, a conflict of interest is all too obvious.
As has been said, there may be some negotiable compromise and I sincerely hope that there is. But if not, Her Majesty's Government have the difficult job of deciding where they put their weight and influence. Loyalty and our own political system---the responsibility for Hong Kong is entirely ours-would seem to point to our meeting these most understandable and ultimately inevitably aspirations of the Hong Kong people. If we do, are we prepared for any confrontational situation which may then arise if China sees it as a strong incentive to change and democratise a political system before it is right to do so?
Are we prepared not only to maintain, but if necessary to enhance, a strong garrison in support of the police to ensure that while we are in charge no undue pressures can be put on the citizens of Hong Kong nor liberties taken, as has happened in the past?
If we proceed along this path--and, as my noble friend Lord Wyatt said, we may have no option but to do so we must have the courage and resources to see it through. On the other hand, in the longer term can Hong Kong be certain that it is in the interests of the people who remain there to embark too early on such a high profile course of constitutional reform in advance of any prospect of changes in China which must in any case one day come about when Chinese goodwill is So fundamental to a harmonious transition? Certainly such political development will always remain a
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