TNAG-2028-FCO40-2890-Hong-Kong-freezing-of-Kuwaiti-and-Iraqi-assets-1990 — Page 14

FCO40 Hong Kong Department Records 聯邦事務部香港部檔案 All

a global shortage in the supply of crude oil will also

affect the refineries in Singapore, a cutback in supply of

oil products to Hong Kong seems unlikely at present.

The imminent outlook for oil prices

6.

price-inelastic

Given that the demand for oil products is rather

particularly in the short term, a shortfall

in supply, even though it is very small relative to the

world total supply, could generate considerable pressures

for an upsurge in oil prices. Thus we see the price per

barrel of crude oil rising from a low of US$15 a couple of

US$17-18 during July as tension emerged at

months ago

the Gulf.

to

At the OPEC meeting on 26 July, a price of $21

per barrel was agreed. With Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and

the outbreak of the crisis early this month, the price of

crude oil surged to a high of US$28-29 before easing back

to around US$25 ag other oil producers undertook to

increase their production.

7.

It is widely believed that, even with a fairly

of the crisis, the price of crude oil

prompt settlement

will not fall too much below the current level. Thus a

more optimistic

outlook would he for

price in the

US$21-25 range.

However, the latest developments regarding

Iraq's aggressive attitude and the massive build-up of

military strength in and near

increasingly worrying

scenario.

the Gulf area point to an

Moves

to

incroaco mil

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