TNAG-2028-FCO40-2890-Hong-Kong-freezing-of-Kuwaiti-and-Iraqi-assets-1990 — Page 13

4.

According

to oil

commercial stockpile

totals

industry sources, the current

around 200 million barrels.

Assuming that the

loss in supply is only confined to Iraq

and Kuwait with

production from all other

suppliers

remaining unchanged, this stockpile should be able to

sustain global consumption

end of

September.

This

at the current level up to the

duration would, of course, be

longer if other suppliers do raise their production. After

that, any

individual

shortfall would have to be met by a draw-down of

strategic reserves or, at

consuming countries'

worse, by some means of rationing amongst countries through

such organisations as the International Enerny Anonnu

5.

Most of the oil products consumed in Hong Kong

are imported from Singapore (Table 2). They are oil

products already refined, like gasoline, light diesel oil,

fuel oil, kerosene jet fuel etc. Hence the sources of

supply of crude oil to Singapore are crucial to Hong Kong's

It is estimated that about 45% of this supply

situation.

is from the Middle East, of which no more than 20% is from

Iraq and Kuwait combined, and probably less than 10% from

Iraq alone. The other 55% of the supply is from countries

in East Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia and China.

Shell and Caltex have confirmed that their refineries in

Singapore do not use crude oil from either Traq or Kuwait

to supply the Hong Kong market.

true of their competitors.

They believe the same is

While it is still possible that