TNAG-2022-FCO40-2884-Chinese-use-of-force-in-respect-of-Hong-Kong-1990 — Page 29

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SECRET UK EYES A

CHINESE USE OF FORCE AGAINST HONG KONG

A

Likelihood of Military Threat

1.

Since the signature of the Joint Declaration, the threat of

Chinese military action against Hong Kong has been assessed as very

low. Deng Xiaoping has referred more than once (though not

recently) to the possibility that the Chinese might reconsider the

timetable for the recovery of sovereignty in the event of major disturbances or "chaos" in Hong Kong. The last time he appears to

have done so (albeit in veiled terms) was in conversation with Sir Y

K Pao in October 1989. This was prominently reported in the Hong

Kong press. We have taken these statements as a reminder that the

British must keep the situation under control in the run up to 1997.

There has been ample evidence in earlier JLG discussions that the

Chinese do not want to see too rapid a run down of British forces.

2.

The eventuality of Chinese use of force against Hong Kong is

still extremely remote and would not in any sense serve China's

wider interests. However, in the light of events in China last June and China's concerns about subversion in Hong Kong, the possibility

cannot be entirely excluded that the Chinese leadership would resort to such measures if they were alarmed by developments in the

territory which appeared to threaten their own position eg.

open support for Chinese pro-democracy movements in the event

of renewed civil unrest in China;

-

a mass exodus from Hong Kong and the breakdown of law and

order triggered by a relapse of confidence in the territory in

the event of a repetition of the brutal use of military force

against Chinese civilians.

Nature of Military Threat

3. There are some 40,000 PLA troops stationed to the north of the

neighbouring Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, within close striking distance of Hong Kong. In addition significant numbers of People's Armed Police (which in wartime would be integrated into the PLA) are

deployed within the Shenzhen area itself: it is likely that the PAP

SECRET UK EYES A