SECRET
HONG KONG: CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT
1. The Governor's visit is probably the last major opportunity we shall have to press the Chinese for improvements in the Basic Law affecting the future political structure and to reach an understanding with them about constitutional development in 1991. On the whole, the omens are not good: the Chinese reaction to our nationality package has served as a reminder that their current mood is one of nervousness and suspicion. They are unlikely to be interested in making further concessions. On the other hand, Hong
Kong have reported some not very specific indications, picked up through intermediaries, that the Chinese might (might) be willing to
move to 20 seats in 1997.
CONS ITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT: OUR OBJECTIVES
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2. At this crucial juncture, the Governor's objective should be to maximise the chances of securing improvements in the Basic Law. particular the aim of the visit should be:
- to secure a larger number/proportion of directly elected seats in 1997 than the 18 out of 60 currently envisaged. The Governor will wish to argue that anything less than 40% directly elected seats will not meet the requirement in Hong Kong. 40% (24 seats) is
probably unattainable. 20 or even 22 seats could be negotiable.
to persuade the Chinese to make provision for further development after 1997. The latest ideas to emerge from the Bas ic Law Drafting Committee are a step backwards: they envisage a freeze on political development for 10 years after 1997.
to secure improvements in the definition of the Grand Electoral College concept for electing part of the legislature. The Governor has advised that if there is to be continuity, with all the benefits that this implies, the GEC would need to be established by Hong Kong in 1995, so that those elected by it could be revalidated in 1997. He would not wish to operate a GEC which was a rubber stamp for pre selected candidates or a device for keeping officials in the legislature
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SECRET
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