t
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
TO DESKBY 25130OZ F CO
TELNO 3154
OF 251115Z AUGUST 88
INFO PRIORITY UKMIS GENEVA
Supe
CONFIDENTIAL
Напої
Pept + Mansi
R
5/8
013535 MDHIAN 1303
YOUR TELNO 2177 (NOT TO UKMIS GENEVA): VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE IN HONG KONG ROUND-UP REPORT
A.
ARRIVALS
TOTAL CAMP POPULATION AS OF TODAY IS CLOSE TO 25,000 (24,932). OF THESE, NEARLY 9,000 (8,884) HAVE ARRIVED SINCE THE CHANGE OF POLICY ON 16 JUNE. THE AVERAGE DAILY ARRIVAL RATE SINCE 16 JUNE HAS BEEN 126. THE RATE FOR AUGUST TO DATE IS 85. THIS REFLECTS A LOW RATE DURING THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF AUGUST. SINCE THEN ARRIVALS HAVE INCREASED AGAIN. DURING THE LAST WEEK THE DAILY AVERAGE HAS BEEN 111.
2. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETECT ANY CLEAR TREND. THE LOWER RATE IN EARLY AUGUST PROBABLY REFLECTS POOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THE VIETNAMESE HAVE TAKEN ANY EFFECTIVE ACTION TO REDUCE DEPARTURES.
3. IN THE PAST ARRIVALS HAVE FOLLOWED A SEASONAL PATTERN, REDUCING WHEN THE WINDS CHANGE IN THE AUTUMN (USUALLY SOMETIME IN SEPTEMBER). OUR NEW POLICY, AND ANY POSSIBLE VIETNAMESE ACTION, COULD STILL AFFECT THE TRADITIONAL PATTERN. SHOULD THIS NOT (NOT) HAPPEN THEN THE TREND OF PREVIOUS YEARS INDICATES THAT WE SHOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A FURTHER 5,000 ARRIVALS BY THE END OF THE YEAR (SEPTEMBER 2,000 THEN 1,000 PER MONTH). THIS WOULD MEAN A TOTAL OF 14,000 FOLLOWING THE CHANGE OF POLICY SUCH A FIGURE, ALARMING THOUGH IT IS, COULD STILL PROVE AN UNDERESTIMATE.
B
SCREENING
•
4. SO FAR WE HAVE INTERVIEWED NEARLY 1,000 (985) POST 16 JUNE ARRIVALS. AN INITIAL VIEW HAS BEEN FORMED ON HALF OF THESE. NONE (NONE) HAVE BEEN FOUND TO MERIT REFUGEE STATUS. WE HAVE NOT YET TOLD ANY OF THOSE CONCERNED ABOUT THE INITIAL RESULTS. UNHCR HAVE INDICATED THAT THEY MAY ASK US TO AMEND OUR QUESTIONNAIRE. THIS COULD MEAN PUTTING SUPPLEMENTARY QUESTIONS TO THOSE ALREADY SCREENED AND SOME OF THOSE INVOLVED BEING RECATEGORISED AS REFUGEES.
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