TNAG-1967-FCO40-2799-Confidence-building-measures-for-Hong-Kong-1989 — Page 20

CONFIDENTIAL

(21

066627

MDLIAN 6498

CONFIDENTIAL

FM UKREP JLG HONG KONG

TO ROUTINE

TELNO 200

FCO

OF 30070OZ AUGUST 89

INFO ROUTINE HONG KONG, BTC HONG KONG

нко

Hko 091/1

TOP COPY Q DIST ?

HONG KONG FOR ACTING GOVERNOR

FOR HKD

YOUR TELNO 1737 TO HONG KONG: CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES

SUMMARY

"

1 CHINESE INTRANSIGENCE IS LIKELY SEVERELY TO LIMIT THE POSSIBILIT- IES FOR IMPROVING CONFIDENCE. WE SHOULD SEEK TO CREATE GREATER POLITICAL SELF-RELIANCE IN HONG KONG. WE SHOULD ESTABLISH A COHERENT

HMG PRESENCE.

DETAIL

2. THERE ARE TENTATIVE SIGNS OF WELCOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER THE JUNE BLOW TO CONFIDENCE. NVERTHELESS THE UNDERLYING PESSIMISM ABOUT THE LONGER-TERM REMAINS STRONG. MISTRUST OF CHINA, UNDOUBTEDLY EXACERBATED BY THE KILLING AND THE CONTINUING REPRESSION, IS DEEP-ROOTED. VERY FEW GIVE CREDENCE TO CHINA'S PROMISE OF A HIGH DEGREE OF AUTONOMY AFTER 1997, WHATEVER MAY BE WRITTEN IN THE BASIC LAW.

3. THERE ARE THUS LIMITS TO WHAT WE CAN DO. OBVIOUSLY WE MUST DO WHAT WE CAN TO ACHIEVE A GOOD BASIC LAW BUT WE CAN REALISTICALLY EXPECT NO MEANINGFUL CONCESSIONS FROM THE PRESENT CHINESE REGIME. FOR THIS REASON ALSO, UTOPIAN SOLUTIONS SUCH AS AN EXTENSION OF THE LEASE OR A UN TRUSTEESHIP CAN BE RULED OUT. I AM INDEED DOUBTFUL THAT ANY EXOTIC SCHEME COULD FULFILL THE OBJECTIVE YOU HAVE SET. THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG WILL BE DECIDED BY THE THREE-WAY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA, HONG KONG AND THE UK. ANY MAJOR POLICY INITIATIVE WILL NEED TO BE AIMED AT ALTERING THE TERMS OF THESE RELATIONSHIPS.

4. AS FAR AS OUR RELATIONS WITH CHINA ARE CONCERNED I BELIEVE WE SHOULD BE LESS SENSITIVE ABOUT CHINA'S ATTITUDES, FOR EXAMPLE OVER THE BASIC LAW. WE ARE NOW FACING A LEADERSHIP WHICH IS LARGELY

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