CONFIDENTIAL
(21
066627
MDLIAN 6498
CONFIDENTIAL
FM UKREP JLG HONG KONG
TO ROUTINE
TELNO 200
FCO
OF 30070OZ AUGUST 89
INFO ROUTINE HONG KONG, BTC HONG KONG
нко
Hko 091/1
TOP COPY Q DIST ?
HONG KONG FOR ACTING GOVERNOR
FOR HKD
YOUR TELNO 1737 TO HONG KONG: CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES
SUMMARY
"
1 CHINESE INTRANSIGENCE IS LIKELY SEVERELY TO LIMIT THE POSSIBILIT- IES FOR IMPROVING CONFIDENCE. WE SHOULD SEEK TO CREATE GREATER POLITICAL SELF-RELIANCE IN HONG KONG. WE SHOULD ESTABLISH A COHERENT
HMG PRESENCE.
DETAIL
2. THERE ARE TENTATIVE SIGNS OF WELCOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER THE JUNE BLOW TO CONFIDENCE. NVERTHELESS THE UNDERLYING PESSIMISM ABOUT THE LONGER-TERM REMAINS STRONG. MISTRUST OF CHINA, UNDOUBTEDLY EXACERBATED BY THE KILLING AND THE CONTINUING REPRESSION, IS DEEP-ROOTED. VERY FEW GIVE CREDENCE TO CHINA'S PROMISE OF A HIGH DEGREE OF AUTONOMY AFTER 1997, WHATEVER MAY BE WRITTEN IN THE BASIC LAW.
3. THERE ARE THUS LIMITS TO WHAT WE CAN DO. OBVIOUSLY WE MUST DO WHAT WE CAN TO ACHIEVE A GOOD BASIC LAW BUT WE CAN REALISTICALLY EXPECT NO MEANINGFUL CONCESSIONS FROM THE PRESENT CHINESE REGIME. FOR THIS REASON ALSO, UTOPIAN SOLUTIONS SUCH AS AN EXTENSION OF THE LEASE OR A UN TRUSTEESHIP CAN BE RULED OUT. I AM INDEED DOUBTFUL THAT ANY EXOTIC SCHEME COULD FULFILL THE OBJECTIVE YOU HAVE SET. THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG WILL BE DECIDED BY THE THREE-WAY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA, HONG KONG AND THE UK. ANY MAJOR POLICY INITIATIVE WILL NEED TO BE AIMED AT ALTERING THE TERMS OF THESE RELATIONSHIPS.
4. AS FAR AS OUR RELATIONS WITH CHINA ARE CONCERNED I BELIEVE WE SHOULD BE LESS SENSITIVE ABOUT CHINA'S ATTITUDES, FOR EXAMPLE OVER THE BASIC LAW. WE ARE NOW FACING A LEADERSHIP WHICH IS LARGELY
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