CONFIDENTIAL
4
Confidence in the Future
7.
The most obvious effect of the recent events in China has been to undermine severely local confidence in the future of Hong Kong, and in particular in the PRC's willingness to allow the territory to have the high degree of autonomy promised in the Joint Declaration. This loss of confidence has already been expressed in increased efforts to emigrate and in widespread emotional demands for HMG to provide a right of entry or right of abode for all Hong Kong British nationals. Some have also suggested that the implementation of the Joint Declaration should be monitored by the United Nations or the international community; others that a commercial deal should be struck with China to delay its full
imposition.
8.
But amidst a plethora of proposals of doubtful practicality, there remains a general acceptance that the Joint Declaration must, in practice, be the foundation of Hong Kong's future. Few have called for it to be revoked. There have, however, been widespread demands for specific sections of the draft Basic Law to be extensively revised so as to give the people of Hong Kong more concrete guarantees that the Chinese Government will not interfere in the territory's internal affairs after 1997.
9.
This
too
loss of confidence is potentially very serious. Hong Kong's main resource is its people. We cannot afford to lose
many of our best and brightest. But,
with 1997 less than 8 years away, there is little time to put in place the safeguards such people need in order to stay in Hong Kong.
10. Particularly worrying is the effect of recent events on the civil service. Hitherto it has been less affected by emigration than the private sector. The Hong Kong Government, with HMG's support in key areas, has been able to keep up morale and efficiency. This is now going to be much more difficult. Fewer civil servants will
feel prepared to transfer their ultimate allegiance to a government that has demonstrated such ruthlessness and disregard for human life. But it is vital, both for the period before 1997 and for afterwards, that we
should retain a stable and efficient civil service in Hong Kong. Time alone will tell whether the new arrangements on nationality that HMG has undertaken to announce will be sufficient to ensure this.
CONFIDENTIAL
/ Internal
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