SECRET UK EYES A
20.
Nuclear and CBW Proliferation. World-wide, there are states which are either nuclear-capable or on the way to becoming so. Nuclear technologies developed for civil purposes have weapon applications and the trade in nuclear materials, equipment and technical assistance will become increasingly difficult to control ("). However, it is
unlikely that any non-European Mediterranean country except Israel will have developed a nuclear warhead by 2015, though such a system might be acquired from an external source.
Failing an effective comprehensive ban, CW will continue to
proliferate because of their apparent greater deterrent cost-
effectiveness over conventional munitions and the lessening of inhibitions on their use (12). Meanwhile the division between CW and BW is becoming blurred by technological developments.
21. Missile Proliferation. States which are capable of
developing their own nuclear, chemical or biological warheads
may find the BM an attractive option as a long-range delivery system. Many countries have begun indigenous missile
development programmes and China and North Korea have joined the Soviet Union as exporters, while Argentina, Brazil, Egypt and Iraq will probably enter the market before the end of the period under review. The parallel development of missiles, CBW and nuclear capabilities must give rise to serious concern that the threshold for use of such weapons might be lowered (13) and that British interests could become threatened
in consequence.
22.
Threat to the UK Mainland. There exists the potential for a direct BM threat to the UK mainland during the period
under review, though how far this potential may be realized is
11JIC (85) 5. 12JIC (85) 14. 13JIC (88)16.
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UK EYES A SECRET
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