SECRET UK EYES A
will emphasize the necessity of access to and promotion of stable markets worldwide. This may require a greater military commitment at various levels of activity OOA.
TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS
18.
Details of progress likely to be made in fields relevant to the UK's OOA capabilities are at Annex E. Technological
trends will take effect on two levels. On the geo-strategic level the development of sources of energy other than oil, and the substitution of man-made for natural raw materials, could reduce the UK's vulnerability to disruptions of supply and a consequent possible need to resort to protective military
action. On the operational and tactical level the access of Third World nations to advanced weapon systems, either through developing their own production capacities or by purchase, will increasingly present the UK and its Western allies with a range of potential opponents whose capabilities in some warfare areas will match, and may even surpass, their own. several areas, notably the Middle East and South Atlantic, this is likely to make high-intensity conflict an increasingly
high-risk enterprise. Forces liable to be drawn into such conflicts will therefore require an appropriate range and scale of equipment.
In
OOA THREAT TRENDS
19.
International terrorism is likely to be an enduring factor, and rogue states may appear. Future circumstances will not necessarily fall into distinct categories of peace, tension and war, but could range across a spectrum of violence
from the spread of malign influence by intimidation, to CBW
and beyond. The DIS assessment of the threat to UK interests
OOA, 2000-2015, is at Annex F.
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UK EYES A SECRET
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