SECRET UK EYES A
land mass (3), and its activities in areas of concern to the UK
seem likely to be characterized by a competition for influence rather than by military confrontation.
9. Potential Superpowers. The future pattern of international relationships is likely to be complicated by Japan's economic dominance and the aspirations of China and India. Japan will share the UK's interest in the general preservation of stability, but is unlikely to seek to contribute to this by military means. However, bearing in mind her potential military strength, it is probably in the West's interest not to leave military vacuums in areas of
vital concern to Japan, lest she should feel impelled to develop a power projection capability which could become a de-
stabilizing factor, particularly in the Far East. The UK's
relations with China will depend considerably on the nature of the transfer of power in Hong-Kong, but in any event she seems unlikely to pose a direct military threat in the FPDA area. However, her ability to produce arms for export, including long-range BM, could give her scope for mischief-making by proxy. India will probably seek to dominate the Indian Ocean and the areas immediately along her borders, but any adverse effect on British interests is more likely to be the consequence of Indian actions against a third party, such as
Nepal, rather than of direct hostility. However, the BIOT are
a potential source of contention should the US withdraw from
its base facilities.
10. Other Regional Considerations. In SE Asia, the economic
prospects seem good in the countries of strategic interest to the UK, and the risk of serious external threat appears low.
In SW Asia, including the Gulf area which will be a crucial
source of energy for much of the West, developments within
3JIC (88) (N) 63 The Soviet Threat to UK OOA Interests.
mb.1s2
4
UK EYES A SECRET
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.