SECRET UK EYES A
6. For the past 25 years the context within which British
defence strategy has evolved has been determined by the relationship between NATO and the WP. It has been predicated
upon a quantifiable threat against which force structures could be measured and designed, together with an integrated
international command structure. The resources allocated to
this effort have provided a balanced range of capabilities
which, in extremis, could and have been utilized in defence of
OOA interests. It may well be, however, that in any future
world post-CFE, reductions to the NATO commitment will require
the UK to make a fundamental re-appraisal of its defence
needs, both nuclear and conventional, to establish the balance
between its Alliance and OOA interests. Until such time,
however, it will be important to retain the capability to react to unforeseen circumstances with the greatest degree of flexibility. One thing only is certain, and that is that
whatever the future holds it will differ from anyone's
intentions as radically as the actual past differed from our
antecedents' plans and wishes.
7. Furthermore, it would be imprudent to assume that the
world is entering upon a period of greater geo-political
stability. On the contrary, historical evidence would suggest
the opposite, and recent events in the USSR and NSWP countries
point to profound changes in the established order, which are likely to have a marked impact upon the security relationships of Europe and the world as a whole.
THE THREATS TO UK INTERESTS OOA
8. The Soviet Union. The Soviet Union's main concerns will
probably be internal, but it will remain a military
superpower. However, there are no signs of any developing
Soviet capability for sustained combat beyond the Eurasian
mb.1s2
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UK EYES A SECRET
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