SECRET UK EYES A
underpin the Belize Defence Force by training and other forms of assistance, eg, against any extension of guerilla activity from Guatemala into Belize. Other malign influences in the region will remain. Cuba will become an impoverished bastion of semi-orthodox Communism, a Caribbean Albania, whose links with the USSR and Moscow's restraining influence may well be significantly reduced. The multiplicity of small, weak states in the area will continue to attract other meddlers, such as
Libya.
3.
Argentina/Falkland Islands. It is not inconceivable that
Argentina's political and economic status could be transformed, albeit slowly and haltingly, during the timeframe. Its presently very unsteady democratic constitution may eventually secure its footing, although probably not without further political and economic crises and continuing strains in the relationship between the Government and the Military. A turnaround in economic fortunes, as a result perhaps of a substantial dismantling of state controls and consequently a more effective exploitation of the country's very sizeable natural resource base, would relieve
many pressures, notably that on the military.
4.
The JIC's latest report on the threat from Argentina's armed forces to the Falkland Islands assessed that a capability to mount a full-scale re-invasion could be put in place in not less than two years, given all the right circumstances. Although the development of Argentina as a military power is most unlikely to be an uninterrupted process for various combinations of political, economic and technical reasons, it would be prudent to assume that in the very long timeframe considered here the physical challenge to our position in the Falkland Islands will significantly intensify. An effective ballistic missile threat is very likely to be established. Much will depend, therefore, on the political climate and the extent to which the maturing of Argentina's
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UK EYES A SECRET
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