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THE THREAT TO UK OOA INTERESTS
ANNEX F TO
D/ACDS (CONCEPTS) 108/5 DATED OCT 89
2000-2015
GLOBAL PATTERN
1.
The United Kingdom's OOA commitments and other areas of national interest are presently found in almost every corner of the globe, stretching from the central and southern zones
of the Americas, through the Mediterranean and the Gulf, to
the Far East. The overall pattern of our global defence interest is not likely to be radically altered by 2015, despite the pull-out from Hong Kong and probably Belize which will have occurred by then. A hitherto neglected corner
- viz Antarctica may have become an additional focus of
attention. In the paragraphs below, we examine likely
political and military development in the various countries
and regions of interest in the period up to 2015, and the
probable implications for the United Kingdom's defence commitments. We also examine the likely pattern of Soviet
activities 00A in the timeframe and the extent to which these
might impinge on UK interests. Finally, the threat to the UK
base itself from OOA is considered.
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO 2015
2.
The Caribbean. In general, the Caribbean area is likely to pose greater threats of instability than it does today.
The drugs problem of the region will grow with its associated corruption, giving an ever-present potential for unrest and
possible need for direct UK involvement in one or other of the
dependent territories, and assistance to various Commonwealth
partners. A stable, secure relationship between Guatemala and Belize is unlikely; the UK garrison will probably have departed, but leaving a sizeable residual commitment to
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