TNAG-1939-FCO40-2765-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1989 — Page 38

SECRET

UK EYES A

LOCSEN

(A)

following year. However, this paper proposes that the first battalion should cease operational service in early-1992 and withdraw from Hong Kong in the second half of the year.

This will be a crucial event and it is considered advisable

that the withdrawal decision, if announced in 1990, should

be scheduled for final - albeit entirely discreet

confirmatory clearance by the COS by the end of 1991. With

this objective in mind, it is proposed that the next biennial review and the major review should be combined and

conducted during the second half of 1991. The review is

likely to be complex, but it is considered that by early October 1991 it will be possible to judge whether the Hong Kong Police will be able to assume effective control of half of the border by the end of that year. There should also be sufficient indication during 1991 of the approach being adopted towards Hong Kong by financial investors. It is

therefore suggested that the first draft of the major review, taking due account of the threat study to be prepared by DIS, should be issued in early October 1991

with final clearance by the COS in committee before

Christmas. This would permit Ministerial confirmation of the withdrawal Decision to be announced, if necessary, some

six months ahead of the actual withdrawal of the first

battalion.

43. If the concept of advancing the major review to 1991 is endorsed by the COS, it will be necessary to consult with

the HKG on the issue because the original call for such a

review came from the EXCO. It is also relevant that the

Chinese have been informed that the major review will take place in 1992; it will therefore be necessary to advise the

PRCG, through the medium of the JLG, of any timescale

revision.

COS53.4-15

27 LOCSEN UK EYES A

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under FOI exemption section 27(1)