TNAG-1939-FCO40-2765-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1989 — Page 18

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after about 1993, once the HKGFSD was able to support the RHKP in fulfilling transferred military tasks.

Four Wessex and 3 Scouts was seen as the minimum

helicopter force required by the garrison at the time of final withdrawal; the rationale is provided at

Annex B.

PART TWO

THE THREAT

C

THE THREAT AND PLANNING FACTORS

12. Factors. CDS 7/87 was based on a threat assessment (5)

which remains valid. This assessment indicated that a marked downturn in the domestic economy, particularly if it led to a substantial increase in unemployment and a fall in real incomes, could trigger unease and result in a loss of confidence in the future of Hong Kong. In the worst case, if confidence eroded dramatically, further investment fund withdrawals could follow, leading to spiralling unemployment, pressure on the HK dollar and accelerating inflation a recipe for civil unrest. In the final years it is conceivable that there will be a flight of capital and talent, and there are already early indications of an increased level of emigration. The loyalty of public officials and police may be tested particularly the loyalty of those dealing with the PRCG, who may be tempted to insure their position by adopting a low profile in areas with contact or potential conflict with the Chinese. In the event of loss of confidence in Hong Kong, or major civil disturbances, the loyalty and reliability of Locally Employed Personnel (LEPS)/Locally Employed Civilians (LECS)

Note:

5.

D/DIC (CS) 21/75 dated 29 January 1987.

COS53.4-15

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