TNAG-1938-FCO40-2764-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1989 — Page 106

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48B)

afloat should recognise that militarily there have been no changes to the threat

which have materially affected the tasks performed by the RN in Hong Kong waters

since CDS 7/87 was issued. Nevertheless, although any extension of the naval

presence afloat would principally be the result of a political commitment, for

fulfilment of that commitment to be credible any force provided must convey

recognisable military presence. But, whatever the naval force proposed by the

study, it should be noted that unless other sources of funding are made

available, financial provision could only be made at the expense of other items

currently funded in the Defence programme.

36. Inputs and Timescales. In recognition of the possibility of a political

commitment to provide some form of RN presence afloat in Hong Kong waters until

30 Jun 97, an MOD Navy study of the future RN presence has been commissioned by

MOD Central Staffs, with recommendations for the provision of a credible mili-

tary force to be presented by mid 1989. Inputs will be required from HMG, HKG,

MODUK, HQBF Hong Kong as well as other agencies. (HQ BF Hong Kong have under-

taken to draft, in conjunction with CAPIC, a role and an outline of the require-

ment for the future RN presence; this will be forwarded following endorsement by

the HKG Security Branch.) The abbreviated timescale has been imposed so that

findings are available at least 18 months ahead of the earliest notional

withdrawal of the third PC; this should permit notification of any pertinent

decisions to the PRCG

37.

Factors. It will be necessary to ascertain via analysis of a range of

options, an appropriate and credible level of operational capability in order

to provide the basis for proper deliberation and the subsequent development of

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ROW 113 (HONG)

Redacted under FOI exemption section 27(1)