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lity that the PRCG may act in accordance with their perceived right to restore

stability should they judge HMG/HKG to lack either the capability or the will to

do so.

14. DIS 1991 Study. In view of the above, the DIS should be tasked to produce

an intelligence assessment detailing the factors likely to contribute to the

outbreak of violence and what, if any, additional collection and assessment

capability will be required to monitor the threat in order to achieve timely

warning. The study should be completed by 1 Jul 91 in time to be considered by

the authors of the major 1991 review of the Garrison withdrawal plan discussed

at paragraph 38. This study should be linked to the overall intelligence study

to be led by DGMSI and currently due to be produced by mid 1992 as indicated

in the catalogue of studies (Reference E) to be undertaken in support if the

withdrawal plan. Subject to endorsement by the COS of the proposed major 1991

review, the overall DGMSI-led intelligence study is to be assigned a revised

completion date of 1 Jul 91.

ASSUMPTION

15. Confidence in Chinese Policy. CDS 7/87 was based on the assumption that

there would be no significant deterioration in the relationship between the PRCG

and HMG, and that the PRCG would maintain its pragmatic approach to the future

of Hong Kong. Consultation on transfer of responsibility for Defence and Public

order has continued since Feb 87 through the medium of the JLG and the 'Expert

Talks' held under the JLG.

ROW 113 (HONG)

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