Redacted under FOI
exemption 27(1)
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SECRET UK EYES A LOCSEN
lity that the PRCG may act in accordance with their perceived right to restore
stability should they judge HMG/HKG to lack either the capability or the will to
do so.
14. DIS 1991 Study. In view of the above, the DIS should be tasked to produce
an intelligence assessment detailing the factors likely to contribute to the
outbreak of violence and what, if any, additional collection and assessment
capability will be required to monitor the threat in order to achieve timely
warning. The study should be completed by 1 Jul 91 in time to be considered by
the authors of the major 1991 review of the Garrison withdrawal plan discussed
at paragraph 38. This study should be linked to the overall intelligence study
to be led by DGMSI and currently due to be produced by mid 1992 as indicated
in the catalogue of studies (Reference E) to be undertaken in support if the
withdrawal plan. Subject to endorsement by the COS of the proposed major 1991
review, the overall DGMSI-led intelligence study is to be assigned a revised
completion date of 1 Jul 91.
ASSUMPTION
15. Confidence in Chinese Policy. CDS 7/87 was based on the assumption that
there would be no significant deterioration in the relationship between the PRCG
and HMG, and that the PRCG would maintain its pragmatic approach to the future
of Hong Kong. Consultation on transfer of responsibility for Defence and Public
order has continued since Feb 87 through the medium of the JLG and the 'Expert
Talks' held under the JLG.
ROW 113 (HONG)
9
SECRET UK EYES A LOCSEN