CONFIDENTIAL
financial year nor exactly how much it will cost per head. We estimate that possibly 2000 might be returned. We would not intend to offer the Vietnamese more than the current figure of US$620 per person agreed for the first mandatory repatriation. On this basis only about £800,000 will be required this year.
11. If, as we intend, the programme will build up and continue, it is possible that we may need to find funds for all the boat people screened out ie potentially 38,000. If there is an influx again next year, this figure could increase. However it is highly unlikely that the figures will be so great. Once the boat people see the programme underway, we consider there will be a great increase in the number volunteering - the costs of which fall to the UNHCR. Nevertheless the potential financial commitment, spread over perhaps three years, could be of the order of £15M. Geoffrey Howe flagged this up in his minute of 25 June to
12. With regard to the reintegration assistance to Vietnam, we intend to negotiate a package on the basis of giving, over a substantial period not more than £5m in some form of aid. The continued flow of the aid would be conditional to the continued smooth flow of repatriation. Given the need to negotiate the package and to devise a satisfactory method of overseeing its use and disbursement, it is not unlikely that substantial sums will be spent during the current financial year.
OFFSETTING UNDERSPENDING IN 1989-90
13.
With regard to underspending, I have already indicated that only some £800,000 may be spent for the per caput payments. There would be some costs relating to the NGOs participation and possibly to some initial reintegration assistance, but these are unlikely to be more than say $200,000. Thus of the £4m agreed for 1989-90, some £3m should be surplus
to regurementther, it is now most unlikely that the £5m set aside for a Refugee Processing Centre will be required this year. Indeed we doubt that it will get off the ground at all, although we cannot say this publicly at his stage. There is now a commitment to settle all refugees within three years and 50% in the first year. Given the time needed to construct the camp, it really becomes quite nugatory. Thus some £8m should be available in total.
The funds required in 1989-90 are thus approximately
With £8m offsetting savings being available for
14. £10.9m.
ROFAIC (4)
CONFIDENTIAL
Page 135Page 136
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.