TNAG-1878-FCO40-2669-Student-demonstrations-and-internal-political-situation-in-C-1989 — Page 106

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MR MCLAREN

PS

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Mr

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SECRET

FROM: A NR MILLINGTON

FAR EASTERN DEPARTMENT

DATE: 6 June 1989

cc: PS/Lord Glenarthur

PS/PUS

Mr Gillmore

Mr Paul, HKD

47

Mr Wye, Research Department

News Department

DI Row, MOD

Mr Barrass, Assessments Staff

CHINA: DIVISIONS WITHIN THE MILITARY

1.

There has been much speculation that the Chinese military is

seriously divided over its attitude towards the enforcement of Martial Law and that China might even be on the brink of civil war. Sir Alan Donald has reported (Peking telno 1040 of 5 June) indications that there is imminent danger of armed strife between

different units of the PLA. Mr Wye of Research Department has

produced the following assessment.

2. The situation on the ground is extremely unclear. The armed forces have apparently been unable to extend their control over the

whole of Peking or to restore even a semblance of normality. Some units are either unable or unwilling to carry out their orders and

there are many indications that this has been the case ever since the declaration of Martial Law. Equally, some units have clearly obeyed orders, but the situation is too confused for any definitive judgement to be made on whether this reflects a clear drawing of

lines between different segments of the armed forces. It is believed that units from the Peking Military Region (especially 38

Army Group) have been the most reluctant to intervene. There have been unconfirmed reports of fighting between 27 Army Group (Peking

Military Region) and 16 Army Group (Shenyang Military Region), but

it is not clear whether this actually occurred or, if so, why.

AS 3AAZ

SECRET