HKB 020/14
MR MCLAREN
PS
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Mr
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SECRET
FROM: A NR MILLINGTON
FAR EASTERN DEPARTMENT
DATE: 6 June 1989
cc: PS/Lord Glenarthur
PS/PUS
Mr Gillmore
Mr Paul, HKD
47
Mr Wye, Research Department
News Department
DI Row, MOD
Mr Barrass, Assessments Staff
CHINA: DIVISIONS WITHIN THE MILITARY
1.
There has been much speculation that the Chinese military is
seriously divided over its attitude towards the enforcement of Martial Law and that China might even be on the brink of civil war. Sir Alan Donald has reported (Peking telno 1040 of 5 June) indications that there is imminent danger of armed strife between
different units of the PLA. Mr Wye of Research Department has
produced the following assessment.
2. The situation on the ground is extremely unclear. The armed forces have apparently been unable to extend their control over the
whole of Peking or to restore even a semblance of normality. Some units are either unable or unwilling to carry out their orders and
there are many indications that this has been the case ever since the declaration of Martial Law. Equally, some units have clearly obeyed orders, but the situation is too confused for any definitive judgement to be made on whether this reflects a clear drawing of
lines between different segments of the armed forces. It is believed that units from the Peking Military Region (especially 38
Army Group) have been the most reluctant to intervene. There have been unconfirmed reports of fighting between 27 Army Group (Peking
Military Region) and 16 Army Group (Shenyang Military Region), but
it is not clear whether this actually occurred or, if so, why.
AS 3AAZ
SECRET