TNAG-1872-FCO40-2660-Relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-China-1989 — Page 130

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could have been aimed at Zhao Ziyang, he himself now appears to be bearing more of the responsibility for the

government's handling of the economy and for the

unpopular austerity programme.

5. It may be no bad thing for reform as a whole that there is a breathing space while the economy is put in order. Even that however is by no means certain. Similar methods have been tried without marked success in

the past.

There is also a danger that, once reform has been halted, it will prove difficult to get started again.

Events of the last few months, including the Congress, have shown that while the leadership may be

able to reach consensus on short-term solutions, the

strains are increasing. Zhao Ziyang came out of the

Congress pretty well, seeming to stand above the criticism of the government's economic mismanagement. But doubts about both him and the reform programme have not been fully laid to rest. A speculative press report from Hong Kong on 12 April forecast that Zhao would be succeeded later this year by Vice Premier Yao Yilin, generally seen as a more conservative figure (and associated with Li Peng), while Zhao himself would move to take over from Deng as head of the party's military commission. But despite these current uncertainties Zhao remains Deng Xiaoping's most likely political heir, even if he cannot expect to enjoy the same prestige and authority. It looks increasingly likely that Deng will stand down in the course of this year, following the

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