TNAG-1850-FCO40-2625-House-of-Commons-Select-Committee-on-Foreign-Affairs-enquiry-1989 — Page 44

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prevented any movement towards Tiananmen. Unable or unwilling to carry through their orders, the troops fell back and for a number of days Peking witnessed huge demonstrations in Tiananmen Square and the city was virtually under the contorl of the students. remarkable display of self control all these demonstrations passed off almost entirely without violence.

In a

7. The authorities were once more paralysed, although messages of

support for the Martial Law decision began to come in from Government Departments and regional authorities (both civil and

military). The authorities however brought more and more troops

from other regions of China into the capital area. But no overt

action was taken against the crowds in Tiananmen. By the end of the month support for the demonstrations appeared to be dwindling despite student attempts to revive flagging enthusiasm by erecting a statue of the "goddess of democracy" on 29 May. On 1 June the mood began to change when the Peking Government laid renewed stress on

Martial Law in news coverage of the event. But the deployment of troops on 3/4 June and the ensuing violent repression came as a

surprise.

ASSESSMENT

8. The situation is still extremely confused. The Chinese

Government the Communist Party have suffered a severe blow to their

moral authority. The ruthless and exceptionally violent means used

have failed so far to achieve the objective of reasserting the

Government's authority. Similar demonstrations and violent scenes

are now occuring in other parts of the country.

9. A severe power struggle has been going on within the leadership. For the moment President Yang Shangkun and Premier Li Peng appear to be leading the dominant group. They evidently have Deng Xiaoping's backing, but there are reports that he is seriously ill and may no longer be taking an active part in events. If the military faction which has carried out the repression can assert control, then, in the short term, Yang and Li may dominate a hard line Chinese Government. But it is by no means certain that the military are united and further, and more serious fighting cannot be excluded. In the longer term it is hard to see how the aspirations of the

AS 3AAY/3

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