TNAG-1821-FCO40-2584-Emigration-from-Hong-Kong-1988 — Page 87

return to Hong Kong. Some who have returned to Hong Kong

in the first instance may leave again. The reason for

all these choices are very personal and depend on a

variety of factors.

15.

However we can make some interpretation of

past figures. Given that in 1987, there were some 30,000

new emigrants and a net outflow of 27,000, then there

were probably around 3,000 returned emigrants that year

(or more accurately, a positive balance of 3,000 on flow

of returned emigrants).

15.

If numbers returning this year are about the

same as last year, the net outflow figure for 1988 will

be about 46,000. As is made clear above, this figure is

subject to a number of assumptions. The main reason for

giving it now is that the net outflow figure has been the

one must widely quoted by government spokesmen in the

past including the Governor, the Chief Secretary and

the Secretary for Administrative Services and

Information. Therefore, some time in early 1989, we will

be expected to quote a similar figure in respect of 1988

and failure to do so would create PR problems of its

own. If the figure is indeed in excess of 40,000, that

will represent an increase of over 50% compared to 1987

which was itself the highest in the 1980s.