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CONFIDENTIAL
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SOVIET INTERNAL
5. The Secretary of State asked whether Gorbachev had seemed anxious about the forthcoming Party Conference. Shultz said, on the contrary, Gorbachev appeared very confident and had used the Summit to build up his position for the Party Conference. The US team had not detected any problem as regards Ligachev's future. Gorbachev had handled that incident well. However, that did not mean that there was no Ligachev problem. The Russians were now much more prepared to talk about internal arrangements in the Soviet Union. The theses for the forthcoming Party Conference made "stunning reading". Gorbachev was confident that his proposals would go through the Party Conference. On the mood in Moscow generally, it was perhaps a sign of the times that the turnout of Soviet representatives at the US Embassy for the President's dinner was largest and most senior at any foreign function since at least Kruschev. The Russians had been at pains to point this out. Ms Ridgway commented that one striking aspect of Moscow was the degree of debate now under way.
AFGHANISTAN
6. Shultz saw little likelihood of the USSR changing their withdrawal plans. Withdrawal had nothing to do with the Geneva Accords but reflected the reality of the position they found themselves in. The biggest potential problem was the embarrassment of continued heavy fighting among the Afghans. The Soviet policy would probably be to push for national reconciliation and in the process highlight the magnanimity of Najib. The Secretary of State agreed that the situation looked messy for the foreseeable future. We expected the refugees to wait until they saw how things were developing in Afghanistan before returning. Shultz argued that the delay might not be as long as Westerners would expect. Already there was a return movement. Mr Whitehead (Deputy Secretary, State Department), who had spent a great deal of time in South East Asia and knew the refugee situation well, thought there was a danger of the West trying to "over-organise". Given half a chance, people who
had very little would return to their original areas and try to scratch a living. The West should try to create a structure for rehabilitation and leave the returning Afghans to handle the detail. Ms Ridgway said that refugees would be greatly influenced by the traditional pattern of village leaders visiting former homelands and for the remainder of the village to be influenced by their decision whether or not to return to them. The Secretary of State and Shultz noted that this was a trend not limited to developing countries. could be found in the US labour market and in the UK, when West Indians first began coming to Britain after the war. The Secretary of State added that this very trend among the Vietnamese was causing us an immense problem in Hong Kong.
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CONFIDENTIAL
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