TNAG-1638-FCO40-2282-Future-of-Hong-Kong-withdrawal-of-the-British-garrison-1987 — Page 95

Flexibility.

LOCSEN

SECRET

UK EYES A

The Sovereign Force option has to be

sufficiently flexible to permit rapid readjustment to meet

changing circumstances, or to cater for unforeseen problems

either in Hong Kong or elsewhere - particularly in the latter

stages of the run up to 1997. Ideally the time between key

events in the plan (ie the withdrawal of infantry battalions)

should be sufficiently long to enable such re-adjustment to be

made without necessarily affecting the whole plan. The most sensible way to proceed therefore is to plan on conducting a phased withdrawal, noting however that ultimately the degree of flexibility will be constrained by the consequential plans

for the Gurkha battalions and the UK battalion.

THE OUTLINE WITHDRAWAL PLAN

45. It is evident that the key to the withdrawal plan must be its flexibility. It should therefore be reviewed frequently.

In principle, the garrison rundown has to be geared to the successful achievement of events in the RHKP expansion plan, and not to a rigid timetable.

46. The RHKP Expansion Plan is summarised at paragraph 37 Since recruiting and retention cannot be guaranteed, quite apart from any other factors which may impinge upon such a rapid expansion, it is necessary that the military withdrawal plan should incorporate an ability to compensate for delays in the achievement of the Police's objectives.

47. The withdrawal of battalions provides the framework for the military plan. All other events, including the rundown of RN

and RAF resources, are related to this. On current RHKP plans

the first battalion could not be withdrawn before 1992 (ie

after handing over half the border commitment). A further

(second) battalion could be withdrawn when the RHKP has assumed

all the military border and IS tasks for planning purposes this would not be before 1994. Two battalions would thus

remain. (However, if an extension of the Brunei battalion beyond

1993 was not forthcoming, the timing of the withdrawal of the

COS 8/172/11

22

UK EYES A

SECRET

LOOSENT