TNAG-1638-FCO40-2282-Future-of-Hong-Kong-withdrawal-of-the-British-garrison-1987 — Page 92

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LOCSEN

SECRET UK EYES A

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battalions (in event-linked rather than timed stages) providing a flexible overlap of the implementation of the

Police Expansion Plan. The ultimate intention would be to reduce to a military force level of a single battalion

group before 1997 provided that stability and the internal

security of Hong Kong was assessed to be assured from

that time until the final handover. Throughout the period, the strength and composition of the Sovereign Force would

be dictated by the need to deter threats to the stability of the Colony, and to take limited but effective military

action as a last resort to restore stability. This solution offers the advantages of the full garrison option (option a) and with judicious management should reduce or avoid the associated disadvantages. The major advantage

of this option is that it would minimise the potential

for political embarrassment (inherent in alternative

garrison force levels so reduced that they could become

hostages of fortune) whilst fulfilling a primary role as

a military signal of political intent. In addition, the

reducing Sovereign Force would provide an acceptable

degree of cover while the newly expanded Police force adjusted to its wider role. This might serve to maintain

public and Police confidence over a period of potential

instability. Final withdrawal would be at a time when

the newly constituted Police force was well established,

thereby giving the PRCG no obvious reason to replace the

garrison with an equally strong PLA presence (remembering

of course that the PRCG will be at liberty to position

any size force in the SAR irrespective of what we may

do). Although This option may meet some resistance from

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the HKG, (who would perhaps profor the token force option),

i would be more likely to receive the approval of the

PRCG and it would satisfy HMG's commitments. It is therefore deemed to be the safest and most prudent option to adopt for planning purposes. It also provides the great advantage that adjustments can be effected in the future if these

are justified.

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UK EYES A

SECRET