ww
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LOCSEN
SECRET UK EYES A
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battalions (in event-linked rather than timed stages) providing a flexible overlap of the implementation of the
Police Expansion Plan. The ultimate intention would be to reduce to a military force level of a single battalion
group before 1997 provided that stability and the internal
security of Hong Kong was assessed to be assured from
that time until the final handover. Throughout the period, the strength and composition of the Sovereign Force would
be dictated by the need to deter threats to the stability of the Colony, and to take limited but effective military
action as a last resort to restore stability. This solution offers the advantages of the full garrison option (option a) and with judicious management should reduce or avoid the associated disadvantages. The major advantage
of this option is that it would minimise the potential
for political embarrassment (inherent in alternative
garrison force levels so reduced that they could become
hostages of fortune) whilst fulfilling a primary role as
a military signal of political intent. In addition, the
reducing Sovereign Force would provide an acceptable
degree of cover while the newly expanded Police force adjusted to its wider role. This might serve to maintain
public and Police confidence over a period of potential
instability. Final withdrawal would be at a time when
the newly constituted Police force was well established,
thereby giving the PRCG no obvious reason to replace the
garrison with an equally strong PLA presence (remembering
of course that the PRCG will be at liberty to position
any size force in the SAR irrespective of what we may
do). Although This option may meet some resistance from
>
the HKG, (who would perhaps profor the token force option),
i would be more likely to receive the approval of the
PRCG and it would satisfy HMG's commitments. It is therefore deemed to be the safest and most prudent option to adopt for planning purposes. It also provides the great advantage that adjustments can be effected in the future if these
are justified.
19
UK EYES A
SECRET