TNAG-1638-FCO40-2282-Future-of-Hong-Kong-withdrawal-of-the-British-garrison-1987 — Page 89

LOCSEN

SECRET UK EYES A

rther discussions with the PRCG; such a delay must be avoided

if at all possible. Moreover, the Police have to develop new

facilities and programmes to more than double the size of the

PTU annual throughput and to train units for border duties.

The MOD plan must be sufficiently flexible to allow for slippage of the Police expansion plan.

GENERAL

GARRISON OPTIONS

38.

Whilst it may be possible to predict events in Hong Kong over the next five years with some degree of accuracy, the picture after about 1992 is clouded by imponderables. Reinvestment trends, police recruiting/retention, the effects of the promulgation of the Basic Law, and many other factors could dramatically

affect the smooth passage of transition. Under these circumtances it would be unwise to make overfirm plans now - especially for the last five years or so up to 1997. Nevertheless, some guidance is required to allow Long Term Costings (LTCs) and future

planning to proceed. To this end several options are considered

below from which an outline Military Withdrawal Plan - agreed

by the Hong Kong Steering Committee has been formulated.

-

OPTIONS

39.

The options for the provision of a future garrison are wide-ranging. At one extreme the UK could maintain the post-1987 military garrison of 4 infantry battalions, with suitable

naval and air components, in support of the expanded RHKP until

1997. On the other hand, the entire military garrison could in theory be withdrawn early, being replaced by an expanded Police

force responsible for the security of Hong Kong up to and after 1997. There are middle course options and all are discussed

below:

a. The Full Garrison Option. Given some of the possible

scenarios for disturbance in the final years of transition, it is possible to justify

-

in purely military troops-to-task

16

UK EYES A

SECRET

“་་