TNAG-1638-FCO40-2282-Future-of-Hong-Kong-withdrawal-of-the-British-garrison-1987 — Page 81

LOCSEN

SECRET UK EYES A

also have an adverse affect on the reli

ity of the Police.

Thus, garrison withdrawals will need to be programmed so that

they minimise any destabilising potential. They should be flexible

enough to avoid any periods of particular tension. These are not

easy to predict accurately but might coincide with events such as

the publication of the Basic Law (First Draft 1988, Final Version

1990), with its promulgation and the period of subsequent reaction

(1990 92) or with the final Five Year Investment Point (1992).

INTRODUCTION

POLITICAL ASPECTS

-

25. Plans for the future of the British Military Garrison in

Hong Kong must take full account of the political interests of

the 3 Governments concerned HMG, the PRCG and the HKG. The

following paragraphs are based en CBFUK's view of intentions and

perceptions in Hong Kong (5), on the political assessment provided

3 by the FCO and on continuous dialogue with the Hong Kong Department of the FCO during the preparation of this paper.

THE JOINT DECLARATION

26. The Joint Declaration of December 1984 assigns the respons-

ibility for preservation of law and order both before and after

withdrawal in 1997. Confidence in its validity will exert a

significant influence on the stability of Hong Kong in the years prior to 1997. The Agreement prescribes the way ahead as

follows:

a.

Pre Withdrawal in 1997 (Article 4). "The Government

of the UK and the Government of the PRC declare that,

during the transitional period between the date of the

Notes:

X

5

X 3,6

HK 33273 54 Sec dated 5 January 1987–

FCO Paper "Withdrawal of the Garrison from Hong Kong: The Political Context" dated 23 December 1986.

COS S/172 (1)

8

UK EYES A

SECRET LOCSEN