TNAG-1638-FCO40-2282-Future-of-Hong-Kong-withdrawal-of-the-British-garrison-1987 — Page 80

LOCSEN

SECRET UK EYES A

of Locally Employed Personnel (LEPS)/Locally Employed Civilians

(LECs) could be affected, possibly resulting in resignations,

desertions, absenteeism or lack of cooperation.

22. Thus there are a variety of internal factors, as well as a number of external influences, which could contribute to instability in Hong Kong and lead to spontaneous outbreaks of unrest and violence, as have occurred in the past. Such factors, which are very difficult to predict, are considered the most likely source

of civil unrest.

23.

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The RHKP is currently considered by the HKG a highly capable force, able to cope with any foreseeable public order or internal security problem. To date, the police

supported on occasions by the garrison I have been able to control civil disturbances. Police capability is planned to expand but this will depend upon the RHKP achieving its qualitative and quantitative recruitment targets and police morale and motivation not decreasing as 1997 approaches. In the final years, police intelligence covering potential sources of civil unrest is likely to diminish, a factor which would reduce early warning of the development of an initial threat in Hong Kong at a critical period. Positive warnings of civil unrest may not

therefore be available until shortly before any outbreak.

all cases, advance assessment of the full impact on public

confidence will be difficult. Violence could range from small

scale peaceful demonstrations to widespread, violent and prolonged rioting with targets either limited to individual premises or involving larger areas including commercial, industrial,

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government, police, military or prestige targets.

In

24. The UK garrison is not expected to become involved unless civil disturbances become very serious. Nevertheless, any reductions in the size of the military presence in Hong Kong will influence local perceptions of HMG's commitment to Hong Kong and the levels of support and effectiveness that the garrison can be expected to provide. These perceptions may influence general- publie confidence in Hong Kong, affect the commitment of these in Publie service, and impact on recruitment to such service. They

7

UK EYES A

SECRET

ܐܕܕܘuenae Son.