TNAG-1638-FCO40-2282-Future-of-Hong-Kong-withdrawal-of-the-British-garrison-1987 — Page 75

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PLANNING FACTORS

5. In addition to the assumption above, a number of other

pervasive factors have been taken into account.

6.

Retention of Flexibility of Planning. The baseline for

preparation of the Garrison Withdrawal Plan is the intelligence

assessment of the external and internal threats to Hong Kong

during the 10 years leading up to the 1997 handover. —The

current JIC assessment (1) does not cover the entire period.

more detailed threat assessment (2) has been produced specifically to support this paper The Withdrawal Plan must provide flexibility

to accommodate future changes in the threat and must be subjected

to regular review by the Steering Committee. It must also be

'eventled' rather than based too closely on selected dates.

7. Confidence in the Joint Declaration. The Hong Kong public's

perception that the Joint Declaration is being satisfactorily

implemented will be a major factor in the preservation of

stability in Hong Kong in the period up to 1997.

8. Confidence in the World Economy. Changes in the world

economic climate before 1997 could adversely affect the stability

and the internal security of Hong Kong, the third largest financial

capital in the world.

9.

Capability of the RHKP. A major factor governing the timing

of reductions in the British Military Garrison is the expansion

of the RHKP to take over responsibility for IS and border control duties. It is hoped that the RHKP expansion will progress largely as planned, and that no serious setback to police morale

or capability will occur. Nevertheless, the Withdrawal Plan

must provide flexibility and a degree of overlap to compensate for slippages.

Notes:

1.

JIC (85) (N)38.

D/DIS (CS) 21/75 dated 29 January 1987.

COS S/172 (1)

2

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