LOCSEN
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UK EYES A
PLANNING FACTORS
5. In addition to the assumption above, a number of other
pervasive factors have been taken into account.
6.
Retention of Flexibility of Planning. The baseline for
preparation of the Garrison Withdrawal Plan is the intelligence
assessment of the external and internal threats to Hong Kong
during the 10 years leading up to the 1997 handover. —The
current JIC assessment (1) does not cover the entire period.
more detailed threat assessment (2) has been produced specifically to support this paper The Withdrawal Plan must provide flexibility
to accommodate future changes in the threat and must be subjected
to regular review by the Steering Committee. It must also be
'eventled' rather than based too closely on selected dates.
7. Confidence in the Joint Declaration. The Hong Kong public's
perception that the Joint Declaration is being satisfactorily
implemented will be a major factor in the preservation of
stability in Hong Kong in the period up to 1997.
8. Confidence in the World Economy. Changes in the world
economic climate before 1997 could adversely affect the stability
and the internal security of Hong Kong, the third largest financial
capital in the world.
9.
Capability of the RHKP. A major factor governing the timing
of reductions in the British Military Garrison is the expansion
of the RHKP to take over responsibility for IS and border control duties. It is hoped that the RHKP expansion will progress largely as planned, and that no serious setback to police morale
or capability will occur. Nevertheless, the Withdrawal Plan
must provide flexibility and a degree of overlap to compensate for slippages.
Notes:
1.
JIC (85) (N)38.
D/DIS (CS) 21/75 dated 29 January 1987.
COS S/172 (1)
2
UK EYES A
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