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riot squads. Potential sources of civil unrest in HK include the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the Kuomintang (KMT), Triad Societies, Political Pressure Groups and spontaneous outbreaks of unrest arising from comparatively minor political, social or economic factors or developments. The CCP represents the main potential threat but it and all other groups are currently pursuing the maintenance of stability in HK, although the KMT and Triads can be expected to exploit any deteriorating situation to their own ends. It is believed that China tends to credit the last two with greater influence and capacity to cause trouble than they
actually possess.
18.
There are no known indigenous terrorist groups. The difficulties which external groups would encounter operating in Hong Kong make the threat of externally inspired terrorist attack very unlikely. The threat of internal sabotage by disaffected personnel may arise as 1997 approaches and assassination attempts, currently considered unlikely, could be targeted against prominent or key personnel.
19.
there
In the short term (until approximately the early 90's) is a degree of confidence in Hong Kong's economic prospects; thereafter the outlook is unpredictable. The prospects of making a quick return on investment post 1992 are bound to diminish. Additional factors which could adversely affect confidence include trade protectionism, economic recession, ill-considered political statements by the Chinese, the death of Deng Xiao Ping, Chinese leadership changes, flight of talent, capital withdrawal, or a weakening of the PRC's liberal policy.
20. A marked downturn in the domestic economy or a wider economic crisis, particularly if it led to a substantial increase in unemployment and a fall in real incomes, could trigger unease and result in a loss of confidence in the future of Hong Kong. In the worst case, if confidence eroded completely, further investment fund withdrawals, spiralling unemployment, pressure on the HK dollar and accelerating inflation could follow a recipe for civil unrest. In the final years it is conceivable that there will be an increase in the flight of capital and talent. In the event of loss of confidence
in HK, or major civil disturbances, the loyalty and reliability
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COS S/184 (2)
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