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15. The only foreign power traditionally deemed to pose an external threat to Hong Kong is the PRC, which has the capability to take
control of the Territory by military force at any time. It has
sufficient forces readily available to isolate Hong Kong by land,
sea and air. Alternatively, the PRC could exert economic and military pressure short of intervention to make government in
Hong Kong difficult or impossible. However, it is currently assessed as inconceivable that the PRC would intervene in Hong
Kong, except in response to a serious breakdown of law and order
in the Territory.
to the
16. In the event of any serious unrest in Hong Kong prior to 1997 the PRCG would expect HMG to control the situation. For
this reason we believe the PRCG might object to a reduction of
the British garrison if they considered this detracted from our
ability to meet what they see as our responsibilities. Moreover,
if the HKG, supported by the garrison, was unable to control
unrest quickly it is unlikely that the PRC would object to temporary
British military reinforcement. Nonetheless, if violence was
prolonged and in particular attributable even partly
transfer of sovereignty, People's Liberation Army (PLA)
intervention is considered a real possibility. The PRCG have
publicly stated that serious disturbances could prompt them to
move into Hong Kong before 1997. However, the detrimental
effect that such intervention would have - on China's national
prestige, the economy and population in Hong Kong and on prospects for a negotiated settlement with Taiwan will be well appreciated
by the PRCG.
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INTERNAL THREAT
17.
Recent history has shown that small incidents in Hong Kong can flare up quickly, particularly if connected to popular
grievances real, imagined or inspired. The pattern has been
one of civil disturbance in urban areas requiring prompt police
action, protection of key points and reserve support for police
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COS S/184 (2)
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