TNAG-1636-FCO40-2252-Visits-by-FCO-officials-to-Hong-Kong-1987 — Page 71

CONFIDENTIAL

It is very difficult to estimate the size of those

parts of the Consular Section that will deal with

passport and immigration matters. At present there are

about 3 1/4 million BDTCs in Hong Kong of whom just over

one million hold passports in that status. All will be

eligible to hold BN (0) passports after 1997, as will

further BDTCs born or naturalised in Hong Kong between

now and 30 June 1997. At present a staff of 185 in the

HKG's Immigration Department undertake passport and

immigration work on our behalf. At this stage we can

make no clear assessment of how many Hong Kong residents

will want a BN (O) passport after 1997 (passports issued

by the Chinese authorities will be available to almost

all of them as an alternative). It will not be until

much nearer 1997 that we can predict the figure with any

certainty. Our first, loose, estimate is that a maximum

of about a third of those eligible will choose to hold

BN (0) passports, i.e. about 1 million. We think there

may be a bulge just before 1997 as the last chance to get

a British passport approaches. It is possible that use

of the passports for travelling will tail off fairly

rapidly beyond 1997 as people opt increasingly for

Chinese passports.

premess

Vstupan zit dahin

fon v. Sanys 1997

Leave

ނ ގ

This would argue for an initial staff level in the

passport/immigration section not far short of the present

Immigration Department level. But clearly we could find

that a much smaller staff would suffice. It is also

likely that the initial staff level could decline with

time. These considerations (and similar ones in relation

CONFIDENTIAL