CONFIDENTIAL
It is very difficult to estimate the size of those
parts of the Consular Section that will deal with
passport and immigration matters. At present there are
about 3 1/4 million BDTCs in Hong Kong of whom just over
one million hold passports in that status. All will be
eligible to hold BN (0) passports after 1997, as will
further BDTCs born or naturalised in Hong Kong between
now and 30 June 1997. At present a staff of 185 in the
HKG's Immigration Department undertake passport and
immigration work on our behalf. At this stage we can
make no clear assessment of how many Hong Kong residents
will want a BN (O) passport after 1997 (passports issued
by the Chinese authorities will be available to almost
all of them as an alternative). It will not be until
much nearer 1997 that we can predict the figure with any
certainty. Our first, loose, estimate is that a maximum
of about a third of those eligible will choose to hold
BN (0) passports, i.e. about 1 million. We think there
may be a bulge just before 1997 as the last chance to get
a British passport approaches. It is possible that use
of the passports for travelling will tail off fairly
rapidly beyond 1997 as people opt increasingly for
Chinese passports.
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This would argue for an initial staff level in the
passport/immigration section not far short of the present
Immigration Department level. But clearly we could find
that a much smaller staff would suffice. It is also
likely that the initial staff level could decline with
time. These considerations (and similar ones in relation
CONFIDENTIAL